Friday, August 04, 2006

Cuban crisis deepens

I put up a post a couple of days ago about Cuba. Today, it seems as if the situation there is growing more confused, with conflicting information about what is going on with Fidel Castro's health, the failure of his designated successor, his brother Raul, to make a public appearance, and the call up of reservists and the placement of the military on 'high alert' status, apparently fearing a Bay of Pigs style invasion by Cuban exiles, maybe backed by U.S. military forces.

And the exile groups are making it sound as if that outcome could be more than just a delusional fantasy. Ramon Raul Sanchez, leader of an exile group called the 'Democracy Movement' says he is organizing a flotilla, despite calls from the Bush administration not to, and he will sail to the island "when the regime begins to crack."

In the post I made earlier this week, I said that the U.S., by relying on a hard line embargo exclusively as our only policy towards the Castro regime, has 'dealt itself out of the game' in terms of the future of Cuba. Many other countries, ranging from Hugo Chavez' Venezuela to Canada, China and European countries, have more influence in Cuba than we do. Our failure to develop a more constructive policy towards Cuba makes it likely that the only way the U.S. will be involved in post-Castro Cuba is violently, if the rumored invasion in fact occurs. And if it does, I suspect the Cuban people would see it as an invasion and defend themselves and likely to lead to the same outcome as the Bay of Pigs.

We had 47 years to reconsider our policy towards Cuba and replace the embargo with a more constructive relationship in preparation for the day that is either upon us right now, or will be upon us in not very much longer.

And our time to do anything more to prepare for it is now over.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Since we're doing Vietnam II in Iraq, Berlin Wall II on our own Mexican border, and Cuban Missile Crisis II in North Korea why can't we have Bay of Pigs II in Cuba? I mean, there are just soooo many bad ideas from the 1960's we could dust off and try again.


The thought of an invasion of Cuba by Cuban exiles is quite scary, actually. There's no way such a thing could be pulled off without a willfully blind eye being turned towards it by the US government, if not more active cooperation.

But you're right, the only real the US can influence events in Cuba is violently.