According to the latest CNN/USA Today poll, if an election were held this November (as opposed to last November) President Bush would be headed to a very significant defeat. Fifty five percent of respondents indicated that if the election were this year, they would vote for John Kerry or whoever else the Democrats were running, while only thirty-nine percent would vote for the President. He had forty-two percent approval in the poll, so even some people who approve of the job he is doing are at least undecided about whether they would vote for him.
One number that can be extrapolated from this fairly easily is that of those people who voted for President Bush one year ago, fully a quarter are not sure that they would vote for him again-- and about half of those would in fact not, and would vote for John Kerry.
Now granted, it is not the election year and people can say whatever they want, but keep in mind that seven years ago, President Clinton, dogged by the Monica scandal and incessant Republican attacks on his foreign policy in his handling of the Kosovo war, had approval ratings well over sixty percent. True, those attacks rang hollow (hint: total U.S. deaths in the Kosovo conflict: zero, largely because we didn't go in without a postwar plan) but it is hard not to see that President Bush is doing much more poorly by comparison.